The active start to the severe weather season looks to continue on Wednesday. A risk for severe weather has been noted by the Storm Prediction Center. Areas included in the risk are Northeast Texas, Far Eastern Oklahoma, Southwest Missouri, Western Arkansas, and Far Northwest Louisiana.
For this particular blog post, we will use a blend of this morning’s runs of the 12z NAM and 12z GFS. The amount of surface based instability is more than sufficient for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Also to note, the amount of helicity in the lowest one and three kilometers are not the greatest. However, these helicity values look to be more than sufficient for sustained updrafts in any thunderstorm that does develop.
The winds at the surface…
…850 mb (about 5,000 feet above ground level)…
…and at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet above ground level) do indicate some turning of the wind with change of height. While this portion of the setup is not overly impressive, some of the thunderstorms that do form will have the potential to rotate.
The amount of the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) in place for Wednesday evening currently appears to be low enough that an isolated tornado threat can not be ruled out.
There looks to be hardly any surface based inhibition Wednesday evening. That will allow thunderstorms to develop fairly quickly across the region.
These two soundings that I pulled up for Wednesday evening are from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, along with areas in Southeastern Oklahoma. Note where the two circles are located at. Those areas indicate where the freezing level is at. Basic rule of thumb. The lower the green (dewpoint) line when it crosses 0°C, potential increases for large hail. Both soundings in this instance indicate such.
In summary, here are the severe threats that we are looking at for Wednesday…
- Large hail (some potentially larger than golf ball size)
- Isolated Tornadoes
- Damaging Straight-Line Winds (lower of the three potential hazards)
We will keep you posted on the developing weather situation for Wednesday. Stay tuned.