Mid Week Severe Weather Threat


The active start to the severe weather season looks to continue on Wednesday. A risk for severe weather has been noted by the Storm Prediction Center. Areas included in the risk are Northeast Texas, Far Eastern Oklahoma, Southwest Missouri, Western Arkansas, and Far Northwest Louisiana.

capesc capesc (1)

For this particular blog post, we will use a blend of this morning’s runs of the 12z NAM and 12z GFS. The amount of surface based instability is more than sufficient for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

12z NAM 03srhsc 12z NAM 01srhsc 12z GFS 03srhsc

Also to note, the amount of helicity in the lowest one and three kilometers are not the greatest. However, these helicity values look to be more than sufficient for sustained updrafts in any thunderstorm that does develop.

12z NAM sfctdsc 12z GFS sfcsc

The winds at the surface…

12 NAM 850mbsc 12z GFS 850mbsc

…850 mb (about 5,000 feet above ground level)…

12z NAM 500mbsc 12z GFS 500mbsc

…and at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet above ground level) do indicate some turning of the wind with change of height. While this portion of the setup is not overly impressive, some of the thunderstorms that do form will have the potential to rotate.

12z NAM lclsc 12z GFS lclsc

The amount of the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) in place for Wednesday evening currently appears to be low enough that an isolated tornado threat can not be ruled out.

12z NAM cinsc 12z GFS cinsc

There looks to be hardly any surface based inhibition Wednesday evening. That will allow thunderstorms to develop fairly quickly across the region.

12z NAM Southeast Oklahoma Hr 84 12z NAM Dallas Fort Worth Hr 84

These two soundings that I pulled up for Wednesday evening are from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, along with areas in Southeastern Oklahoma. Note where the two circles are located at. Those areas indicate where the freezing level is at. Basic rule of thumb. The lower the green (dewpoint) line when it crosses 0°C, potential increases for large hail. Both soundings in this instance indicate such.

In summary, here are the severe threats that we are looking at for Wednesday…

  • Large hail (some potentially larger than golf ball size)
  • Isolated Tornadoes
  • Damaging Straight-Line Winds (lower of the three potential hazards)

We will keep you posted on the developing weather situation for Wednesday. Stay tuned.


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